VON originally stood for voice on the net, but now it's also video on the net...and Hank Kafka, the Chief Architect for BellSouth, would like to see us move to "everything on the net" (EON). Here's the vision as articulated at Spring 2006 VON:
Previously, the communications industry had silos for wireless voice/data, wireline
voice, video, and web. Today, Kafka sees broadband connections and IP
underlying all of these areas, and middle service layers that are supporting the
architecture of each stack.
Moving forward, Karka is excited about a converged services architecture. The stacks disappear, and instead you have broadband connections, IP, and an application services infrastructure (ASI) directly supporting any number of applications. Kafka's ASI would provide all middle functions: authentication, unified directory, unified presence, and the like. The unsurprising challenges to this would include trust, standards, and federation.
Today's IPTV does not equal video over the Internet. As Kafka
sees it, IPTV uses a multicast-based business model that is pretty
similar to cable TV. Someday, this will migrate to a unicast system
that is more like video on demand.
Cost bases for broadband provision include access speed and quantity
today, but in the future they will also include schedule and distance.
Kafka walked through the math: Today, a point-to-point video may cost
$1 to transmit, based upon the file size (2 GB), estimated busy hour
usage (< 50 Kbp/s), and the access speed (1.5 - 6 Mbps) used. Five
standard-definition movies (9 GB at 190 Kbp/s) per month gets you up to
about $4.50, presuming that your access speed doesn't change.
Using today's rate card, once you get up to high-definition viewing
of
all content, you get stratospheric pricing - and who's going to pay
prices of $600 per month? For EON to happen, it's not just
communications architectures that must change, it's also the pricing
philosophy - Kafka's separation of access
speed from traffic quantity will be essential.
Tags: christine herron christine.net space jockeys technology vod iptv von bellsouth
